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  Electronic components industry fluctuations in advance

Electronic components industry fluctuations in advance

2016-07-08 15:45:46


Due to the unexpected effects of the subprime mortgage crisis and economic slowdown in the United States on consumer demand, market research agencies have downgraded the 2008 global semiconductor industry market growth rate. At the beginning of March, the Gartner forecasts for 2008 down from 6.2% to 3.4%. Isuppli is also expected to cut its previous forecast in the near future, but the specific growth rate has not been given. The research firm In-stat predicts that the growth rate of the global market in 2008 will decline to about 2.4%. However, because the research institutions have repeatedly adjusted its predictive value for a year, so the growth rate does not fully explain the problem.
It must be admitted that the decline in consumer demand caused by the slowdown in the U.S. economy is real, but its duration and the effect of the actual impact of the current can not be judged. We believe that the current global semiconductor market growth in the main resistance is still from the internal, that is, the decline in the price of flash and excess capacity. Predictions from the agencies can also be seen, although the downgrade the 2008 growth rate, but in 2009 and 2010 forecast still optimistic, think the market growth rate will be restored to about 10%, so it can be said that the growth of the semiconductor industry base has not shaken.
According to SIA statistics, in January 2008 the global semiconductor industry achieved sales of $1 billion, an increase of only 0.03%, but in February this growth rate has risen to 1.5%. SIA's explanation for this is that the rapid growth of the global semiconductor market has been masked by the collapse of NAND prices. If you do not consider the NAND market, the other semiconductor market each year to maintain more than 10% growth, and in addition to the United States, including Europe, the world's other markets have maintained a high consumer demand.
For the global semiconductor market trend in 2008, we are more inclined to Dikaigaozou judgment. The reasons are as follows.
First, the North American semiconductor equipment orders shipments ratio (BB value) continues to rise, the bottom has appeared in September 2007, and in the subsequent December, the number of orders increased significantly. As a leading indicator of the semiconductor market, it can not do not explain some of the problems.
Secondly, from the most recent data, the global semiconductor market, excess inventory is declining, in excess of stock control, the market supply and demand will return to stable.
Finally, a NAND prices downward trend, we believe that this trend may not sustainable in the long term, after all production business should also take into account the cost of their own problems, NAND price stabilization to be beyond, the effect of other market of rapid growth for the entire semiconductor market will appear

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